Economic models, high-priced consultants and ethical analysis

A colleague sent me a ProPublica article that explains how some “professors make more than a thousand bucks an hour peddling mega-mergers.” That’s a lot of money, even by consulting standards. MBA business consultants can charge between $200 and $600 an hour. Top partners in consulting firms might charge between $800 and $1200. A Wall Street Journal article in 2011 reported that top lawyers charged as much as $1000 an hour. But some economists are pulling in $1300 an hour as consultants.

To be fair, in a free market buyers and sellers should be able to negotiate for exchange prices. If someone is demanding $1300 an hour for their services and another is willing to pay it, then there is nothing objectionably wrong about the arrangement.

In this case the economic consultants are hired by firms that want to merge with or acquire other companies. The consultants are tasked with building a strong case, based on solid and objective economic principles and evidence, that the merger is in the interest of the industry, business, consumers and everyone else. What makes the article interesting is not that there are high priced economic consultants. It is that these consultants often get the antitrust analysis wrong. They build the arguments on speculation. They ignore or trivialize inconsistent or contradictory evidence. They use “junk science,” in the words of a Justice Department official quoted in the article.

A cynic might say that companies are paying the economists whatever price they will accept to argue whatever the company wants them to say, regardless of economics. Apologies to my lawyer friends, but isn’t this what lawyers do? So economists are on the same level as lawyers now?

Economics is a science. And economic models, when used appropriately, can provide a degree of objective assessment. The subjectivity comes in determining which economic models to use and what evidence to incorporate into the analysis. The ethical problem arises when the prospect of financial gain (in this case, a $1300 an hour contract) influences which models and what evidence to utilize. As noted by the authors, “The government’s reliance on economic models rests on the notion that they’re more scientific than human judgment. Yet merger economics has little objectivity. Like many areas of social science, it is dependent on assumptions, some explicit and some unseen and unexamined. That leaves room for economists to follow their preconceptions, and their wallets.”

The implication is that government regulators might be convinced a proposal is best for stakeholders (notice I didn’t use the word stockholders) when it is really only in the interest of the company seeking the merger–and comes at the expense of other stakeholders. In the case of a proposed merger between cell phone companies AT&T and T-Mobile, the economic consultant wanted to make this argument: “That even though prices would have risen for customers, the companies would have achieved large cost savings. The gain for AT&T shareholders … would have justified the merger, even if cell phone customers lost out.”

Let’s hear it for the economists.

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Author: Harvey James

Professor, Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Missouri Editor-in-chief, Agriculture and Human Values

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